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When H3N2 replaced H1N1 as the dominant influenza A subtype during the 2018-2019 season, the pattern of age-specific incidence shifted due to the lingering effects of antigenic imprinting. The characteristic shape that imprinting ...
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When H3N2 replaced H1N1 as the dominant influenza A subtype during the 2018-2019 season, the pattern of age-specific incidence shifted due to the lingering effects of antigenic imprinting. The characteristic shape that imprinting leaves on influenza susceptibility could foster important advances in understanding and predicting the epidemiology of influenza.
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Introduction. Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease a...
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Introduction. Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends.
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Introduction: The incidence of gastric cancer declined over the past decades. Recently, unfavorable trend breaks (i.e. rise in incidence) were seen for non-cardia cancer in younger age groups in the US. It is unclear whether these...
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Introduction: The incidence of gastric cancer declined over the past decades. Recently, unfavorable trend breaks (i.e. rise in incidence) were seen for non-cardia cancer in younger age groups in the US. It is unclear whether these also occur in other Western countries. We aimed to analyze the gastric cancer incidence trends by age, sex, subsite and stage in the Netherlands. Methods: Data on all patients with gastric adenocarcinoma diagnosed from 1973 to 2011 (n=9093) were obtained from the population-based Eindhoven cancer registry. Incidence time trends (European standardized rates per 100,000) were separately analyzed by sex, age group (<60, 60-74, and >75 years), subsite, and pathological stage. Joinpoint analyses were performed to discern trend breaks, age-period-cohort analyses to examine the influence of longitudinal and cross-sectional changes. Results: The incidence of non-cardia cancer declined annually by 3.5% (95% CI -3.8; -3.3). However, in males <60 years, the incidence flattened since 2006, and tended to rise in those >74 years. This pertained to corpus cancers. The incidence of cardia cancer peaked in 1985 and decreased subsequently by 2.4% (95% CI -3.2; -1.5) yearly. The absolute incidence of stage IV disease at first diagnosis initially decreased, but then remained stable over the past 15-20 years. Conclusions: The incidence of non-cardia cancer declined over the past four decades in the Netherlands, but now seems to be stabilizing particularly in males. Unfavorable trend breaks are seen for corpus cancer in younger and older males. The trend breaks in the Netherlands are however not similar to those observed in the US.
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Objective: To provide data on type 1 diabetes (T1D) epidemiology in childhood over a period of 20 years and to predict prevalence and cohort-age-specific incidence rates (IRs) for the next two decades in Germany. Methods: The Bade...
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Objective: To provide data on type 1 diabetes (T1D) epidemiology in childhood over a period of 20 years and to predict prevalence and cohort-age-specific incidence rates (IRs) for the next two decades in Germany. Methods: The Baden-Wuerttemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) includes children and adolescents below 15 years of age with new onset of T1D (period 1987-2006, n = 5108 cases). Results: The mean age- and sex-standardized IR was 15.3/100 000/year (95% CI 14.8-15.7) and the average increase in the IR was 4.4% per year (95% CI 3.9-4.9). Within the next 20 years (2007-2026), the risk for developing diabetes will increase like the square of a linear function with calendar year for all age ranges. There is a strong correlation between the predicted IRs of the cohorts and the observed IRs (n = 300; root mean square error = 0.56; r 2 = 0.71) and a negative correlation between mean age at onset and T1D IR (p = 0.02). On 31 December 2006, the prevalence of T1D was 0.126% (95% CI 0.121-0.132). The predicted prevalence (end of 2026) is estimated to be 0.265% (95% CI 0.25-0.28; predicted cases: n = 2950; 95% CI 2900-3000). Conclusions: In comparison to observations made in the past, the risk of disease rises even faster than expected: The younger the child, the quicker the increase of the cohort-age-specific IR and the higher the risk for T1D during lifetime.
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Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) overall incidence has been decreasing in the last decade. However, there is evidence of an increasing frequency of early-onset CRC in young individuals in several countries. The aim of this stud...
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Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) overall incidence has been decreasing in the last decade. However, there is evidence of an increasing frequency of early-onset CRC in young individuals in several countries. The aim of this study is to evaluate the trends of CRC occurrence over 17 years in the municipality of Milan, Italy, focusing on early-onset CRC.
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Background Overweight and obesity is a growing public health issue as it contributes to the future burden of obesity-related diseases, including cancer, especially in high-income countries. In Australia, 4.3% of all cancers diagno...
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Background Overweight and obesity is a growing public health issue as it contributes to the future burden of obesity-related diseases, including cancer, especially in high-income countries. In Australia, 4.3% of all cancers diagnosed in 2013 were attributable to overweight and obesity. Our aim was to examine Australian age-specific incidence trends over the last 35 years for obesity-related cancers based on expert review (colorectal, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, breast in postmenopausal women, uterine, ovary, kidney, thyroid, and multiple myeloma) individually and pooled. Methods Australian incidence data for 10 obesity-related cancers among people aged 25-84 years, diagnosed from 1983 to 2017, were obtained from the Australian Cancer Database. We used age-period-cohort modelling and joinpoint analysis to assess trends, estimating incidence rate ratios (IRR) by birth-cohort for each individual cancer and pooled, and the annual percentage change. The analyses were also conducted for non-obesity-related cancers over the same period. Findings The total number of cancers where some proportion is obesity-related, diagnosed from 1983-2017, was 1,005,933. This grouping was 34.7% of cancers diagnosed. The IRR of obesity-related cancers increased from 0.77 (95% CI 0.73, 0.81) for the 1903 birth-cohort to 2.95 (95% CI 2.58, 3.38) for the recent 1988 cohort relative to the 1943 cohort. The IRRs of non-obesity related cancers were stable with non-significant decreases in younger cohorts. These trends were broadly similar across sex and age groups. Interpretation The incidence of obesity-related cancers in Australia has increased by birth-cohort across all age-groups, which should be monitored. Obesity, a public health epidemic, needs to be addressed through increased awareness, policy support and evidence-based interventions. Funding This research received no specific funding.
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Life expectancy has greatly increased in the last century. In the last decades, cancer in the older people has become an increasingly common problem owing to the prolonged life-expectancy of the general population and to the impro...
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Life expectancy has greatly increased in the last century. In the last decades, cancer in the older people has become an increasingly common problem owing to the prolonged life-expectancy of the general population and to the improved management of common cancers. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the age-specific incidence ratios in patients with BC. Data were collected from hospital-based registries from 1988 to 2007. A total of 10,149 patients were assessed. The median age at diagnosis was 50 years. When compared to Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data, these values were found to be 11 years younger than American patients. Trends consist of the median ages of patients were increased during years (p< 0.001). Along the years, especially in the last years, the ratios of cancer patients of older than 70 years were significantly increased among the BC patient populations. In conclusion, BC in older person has become an increasingly common problem in the last years.
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Introduction:This study reported the trends and analyzed the age-period-cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer in China.Methods:The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) b...
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Introduction:This study reported the trends and analyzed the age-period-cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer in China.Methods:The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) by Segi's world standard population were calculated using qualified consecutive data from 22 cancer registries from 2003 to 2017 in China. We performed joinpoint analysis to describe the trends and age-period-cohort analysis to estimate the independent effects of age, period and cohort on trends in incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer.Results:The ASIR and ASMR for cervical cancer in females over 20 years old increased during 2003-2017. For females 50 years, the ASIR and ASMR increased both in urban and rural areas. Age-period-cohort analysis showed increasing period effects on cervical cancer incidence and mortality during the whole period. The cohort effects exhibited a downward-upward-downward pattern for the incidence (1918-1938, 1938-1963, 1963-1993) and mortality rates (1918-1943, 1943-1963, 1963-1993) in urban areas, a fluctuating pattern for incidence rate and a continuing downward pattern for mortality rate (1918-1993) in rural areas.Conclusions:The increases in cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates can be mostly explained by period effects. We observed decreases in risk for cervical cancer incidence and mortality in young female generations, which were more obvious in urban areas.Copyright and License information: Editorial Office of CCDCW, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2022.
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Background: The overall incidence of melanoma has increased steadily for several years. The relative change in incidence at different ages has not been fully described. Objective: To describe how incidence at different ages has ch...
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Background: The overall incidence of melanoma has increased steadily for several years. The relative change in incidence at different ages has not been fully described. Objective: To describe how incidence at different ages has changed over time and to consider what aspects of tumour biology may explain the observed pattern of change in incidence. Methods: The slope of incidence vs age measures the acceleration of cancer incidence with age. We described the pattern of change over time in the overall incidence of melanoma, as well as in acceleration. We used data for males and females from 3 different countries in the 17 sequential 5-year birth-cohort categories from 1895-99 to 1975-79, from which we derived the incidence patterns. Results: Over time, there has been a tendency for the overall incidence of melanoma to increase and for the acceleration (slope) of the age-incidence curves to decline. The changing patterns of melanoma incidence and acceleration differ between males and females and between the countries analysed. Conclusions: The observed pattern in melanoma of rising incidence and declining acceleration occurs in other cancers in response to genetic knockouts of mechanisms that protect against cancer. Perhaps some protective mechanism with respect to melanoma may be less effective now than in the past, possibly because of more intense environmental challenges.
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Testicular cancer is the most common cancer among young men of European ancestry, with about one-third of all cases occurring in Europe. With the historically increasing trends in some high-incidence populations reported to have s...
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Testicular cancer is the most common cancer among young men of European ancestry, with about one-third of all cases occurring in Europe. With the historically increasing trends in some high-incidence populations reported to have stabilised in recent years, we aimed to assess recent trends and predict the future testicular cancer incidence burden across Europe. We extracted testicular cancer (ICD-10 C62) incidence data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VII-XI and complemented this with data published by registries from 28 European countries. We predicted cancer incidence rates and the number of incident cases in Europe in the year 2035 using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. Testicular cancer incidence rates will increase in 21 out of 28 countries over the period 2010-2035, with trends attenuating in the high-incidence populations of Denmark, Norway, Switzerland and Austria. Although population ageing would be expected to reduce the number of cases, this demographic effect is outweighed by increasing risk, leading to an overall increase in the number of cases by 2035 in Europe, and by region (21,13 and 32% in Northern, Western and Eastern Europe, respectively). Declines are however predicted in Italy and Spain, amounting to 12% less cases in 2035 in Southern Europe overall. In conclusion, the burden of testicular cancer incidence in Europe will continue to increase, particularly in historically lower-risk countries. The largest increase in the number of testicular cancer patients is predicted in Eastern Europe, where survival is lower, reinforcing the need to ensure the provision of effective treatment across Europe.
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